While Ukraine waits for help from the US, the Russians may gain tactical advantages - ISW

Occupiers could gain significant tactical advantages while the Defense Forces await the arrival of military aid from the United States, according to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces are likely to gain significant tactical advantages in the coming weeks while Ukraine awaits safe U.S. aid, but are unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

Politico reported that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in December 2023 Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson that Ukrainian troops will be able to “hold out” until March or April 2024 without additional US security assistance – the period through which Ukrainian troops are now passing without the arrival of military assistance from the United States.

Analysts note that the arrival of American aid to the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian troops to resolve ongoing logistics problems and pause Russian offensive operations, while Russian troops are likely to intensify efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses and try to gain a foothold in time for the arrival of aid .

"Well-endowed Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant advances by Russian forces during Russia's expected summer offensive, although Russian forces are nevertheless using individual advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer." ;, – says the review.

It is also noted that Russian troops are relying in part on their numerical superiority in equipment and manpower to put constant increasing pressure on Ukrainian troops.

At the same time, the Russian military is suffering losses that Ukrainian troops could not withstand.

Russian troops' focus on quantity, regardless of quality, supports Russian tactical advantages, especially since delays in Western security assistance have led to a deterioration in Ukraine's qualitative advantages over Russian troops, and the Russians are likely to use quantity to achieve tactical advantages against even well-resourced Ukrainian forces this summer, – experts say.

However, the Russian rate on quantity – is not the only adaptation that Russian troops made in Ukraine, as the occupiers demonstrated an uneven propensity for operational, tactical and technological innovation and training.

Russian military commanders appear to be learning from the mistakes of past operational planning in Ukraine and are likely to launch a summer offensive aimed at stretching and overwhelming Ukrainian forces along a broader front in eastern Ukraine.

In addition, Russian forces have also significantly changed tactical air operations in Ukraine through the massive use of glider bombs, which allows aircraft to more safely strike from deep behind the lines.

These glider bomb strikes will play a critical role in supporting Russian ground operations this summer, despite the likely improvement in the air defense capabilities that Ukrainian forces will be able to use against Russian aircraft with the arrival of additional Western air defenses.

However, the report says, Russian forces still suffer from large-scale tactical errors, and Ukrainian forces will be able to exploit these errors as long as Russian military commanders continue to struggle with the internalization and spread of adaptations at the tactical level.

Ukraine will likely stabilize its front line in the coming months and will be able to launch limited counteroffensive operations in late 2024 or early 2025. analysts add.

ISW Key Findings for April 27:

• Russian forces are likely to gain significant tactical advantages in the coming weeks as Ukraine awaits the arrival of American security aid to the front, but are unlikely to be able to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
• Well-endowed Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant Russian advances during the expected summer offensive, although Russian forces will still use individual advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer.
• The pace of Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction is higher than that of Vremya Yar, as the occupiers are focused on exploiting the tactical situation that is unfavorable for Ukrainian troops northwest of Avdiivka. However, Russian forces are likely to step up offensive operations near Vremya Yar in the coming weeks, as the city is important to the Russians for a more operationally significant advance.
• On the night of April 26-27, Russian troops launched large-scale cruise and ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine and likely resumed strikes with Kalibr cruise missiles. sea-based after a long break.
• On the night of April 26-27, Ukrainian troops successfully launched drone strikes on a Russian airfield and oil refineries in the Krasnodar region.
• The Russian federal government continues to try to consolidate greater control over migrant communities living in Russia.
• The Kremlin is likely creating conditions for intensifying hybrid operations against Moldova.
• Russian troops have recently made confirmed advances north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk.
• The subjects of the Russian Federation continue to sponsor Russian military formations.