Raid on Kursk region: goals, results, consequences

The military operation in the Kursk region has been going on for three days. Some armed groups (apparently the Ukrainian Armed Forces, although no official speaker in Ukraine has confirmed this yet) are conducting a daring raid behind enemy lines.

By the evening of the second day, there are already results: a fairly large amount of territory has been captured by the standards of this war, and it seems that an important infrastructure object—the Sudzha gas metering station—has been taken under control. However, we do not yet see any strategic plan or goal for this operation.

What is happening in the Kursk region? What is the purpose of the raid? What could be the consequences? Let's figure it out.

➡️What's happening in the Sudzha district?

First, it's important to note that it's not very accurate to compare the events in the Kursk region with similar raids by RDK and LSR in March of this year, as some colleagues are doing. Back then, fighters entered in small groups (essentially sabotage and reconnaissance groups) with minimal heavy equipment and created maximum media effect.

This time, everything is the opposite: there are more personnel (up to 1,000 people), the range of equipment has significantly expanded, coordination is also at a high level, but there is no PR... literally no official information, and we are getting almost all information about what is happening from Russian media and Z-war correspondents.

➡️Why is this necessary?

Interpretations of the events vary greatly, and in the absence of an official version, speculation is rampant. We've compiled a list of the most likely explanations.

▫️A major provocation. This motive for the operation was officially voiced by Putin. It is partly true, but for a provocation, it seems too large-scale. ▫️Deliberate escalation. The goal might be to provoke the Russian Federation into a maximally harsh (possibly even unconventional) response. This is also possible, but it does not align with the peace rhetoric that has been constantly voiced by the authorities and the president himself recently. ▫️Diverting troops from other directions. For example, from Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, or Donbas. This sounds plausible, but the forces are unequal: only 1-2 battalions entered, which is too few. ▫️Distracting attention from a major operation planned in another section of the front. A very likely explanation. ▫️Seizing territories and critical infrastructure (from the Sudzha GMS, through which all gas transit from the Russian Federation to the EU via Ukraine passes, to the Kursk NPP) with the aim of further bargaining. For example, they might propose exchanging the Kursk NPP for the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP. This is also an option, but it is very risky, and the result is not guaranteed. ▫️"Thousand cuts tactic" and a public slap in the face to the Russian leadership. Like, while Putin is boasting about stability, foreign troops are roaming the borderlands and even seizing quite significant territories. It is unlikely that this was the main goal, but as an additional bonus, it is also a plausible version.

In our opinion, there is no single reason for what is happening. The raid, like previous similar operations, may have a complex of goals.

At a minimum, it provokes the Russian Federation, escalates the situation, and puts the Kremlin in an unfavorable light. It's no coincidence that even Russians on social media are joking about "the outcomes of the special military operation being somewhat like this, thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich." At the maximum, this raid may have a strategic task of distracting attention and dispersing enemy forces. There may also be an attempt to seize infrastructure objects.

The main question is: what's next, what could be the consequences?

➡️What's next?

At the beginning of the text, we said that we do not yet see any global plan in what is happening. Since the events are still unfolding, it is possible that in the next day or two, the situation will become clearer. But right now, we don't fully understand why this is necessary.

It is obvious that joining Sudzha and declaring the "Kursk People's Republic" is not part of Kyiv's plans. It is also clear that the occupation of "canonical" Russian territory is unlikely to be needed by Ukraine. And it is impossible to achieve this with the forces of 1-2 battalions.

Seizing the GMS through which transit passes through Ukraine? This is also doubtful. After all, transit can be blocked within Ukraine, on our territory. Seizing the Kursk NPP? It has merit and looks powerful overall. Operation "tit for tat": you give us the Zaporizhzhia NPP, we give you the Kursk NPP. But here, too, there are many questions:

▫️Will it be possible to reach it? It is 90 km from Sudzha by road and about 60 km as the crow flies. ▫️Will it be possible to capture it with such small forces? ▫️Will it be possible to hold it? How will reinforcements, ammunition, and supplies be delivered? ▫️How will the world react to this? Will Ukraine face accusations of nuclear terrorism? ▫️How will the Russian Federation react? Radically, such as declaring war, or with another massive missile strike? Neither option is good.

There are actually many questions. It is also clear that this situation will complicate hypothetical peace negotiations (let's recall that Ukraine officially wants to see the Russian Federation at the second peace summit) and escalate the situation.

➡️To summarize.

We do not have all the information at the command and intelligence levels—perhaps we are mistaken somewhere, and in the near future, the global plan will become clear. But right now, we see the situation as follows: a daring loud raid, but without a clear specific goal—"to stir things up." Maybe this is the goal? We'll keep following.