Kursk Operation: Interim Conclusions and Forecasts
The invasion of the Kursk region continues for the fifth day. Kyiv has not yet officially acknowledged that the actions are carried out by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but it is already clear to everyone what is happening. Despite the ongoing "fog of war" surrounding the events, some preliminary conclusions can already be drawn.
What is happening in the Kursk region? Why is this happening? What’s next?
Kursk Operation: Counteroffensive-2024 and a New Phase of the War
Firstly, this is not just a "border raid," as it might have initially seemed. This is a full-scale combined-arms operation, carried out by several brigades equipped with armored vehicles, artillery, air defense systems, and possibly aviation.
Secondly, we are witnessing a classic large-scale offensive operation, which so far appears to be more successful than the southern counteroffensive in 2023. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have penetrated 30-35 km deep, controlling between 155 and over 600 km² of enemy territory.
Thirdly, the Russian command is once again demonstrating absolute incompetence and chaos. Local authorities were unprepared for the invasion, leading to shock and complete disarray. There is no unified media narrative or global response, while propagandists and Z-telegram channels criticize the government.
Fourthly, the war has entered a new phase. This is the first full-scale invasion of Russian territory since World War II. The entire Ukraine-Russia border is now becoming a front line.
Fifthly, this will indefinitely delay any potential negotiations. The war is becoming more radicalized, and Russia's response could be either symmetrical or asymmetrical.
The ultimate goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is still unclear, but judging by the fact that they are fortifying positions, Ukraine plans to stay in the Kursk region. But what comes next?
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