Uncertainty over war in Ukraine keeps Kremlin from preparing for Duma elections – ISW

The Kremlin is trying to prepare for the State Duma election campaign in September 2026, but its uncertainty over the course of the war in Ukraine suggests that the Russian authorities are not confident that Russia can win the war within the next two years.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: On 30 October 30, the Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of the Russian leader’s administration, has not yet begun outlining plans for the "contours" of the 2026 Duma elections, despite the Kremlin typically initiating this process two years prior. 

A source close to the Russian leader’s Administration told Meduza that the policy direction for the Duma elections will hinge on whether the war in Ukraine continues into 2026. The source within United Russia's leadership said that it remains uncertain whether United Russia's 2026 campaign should feature military personnel or someone who "symbolises a return to peaceful life," such as Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. 

A political strategist working with the Kremlin and several regional governments reportedly mentioned that if the war persists during the 2026 election season, the Kremlin will require "a force that leans on ultra-patriotism," potentially through a completely new political party or a "slightly updated" A Just Russia party. The source added that, should the war conclude, the Kremlin would need "moderate forces." 

Notably, A Just Russia held a congress on 26 October, where it announced a shift toward "patriotic socialism," which the party described as essential for Russia's war effort in Ukraine and as grounded in the "great achievements of Russian civilization" as a foundation for further national development.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 30 October:

• Western intelligence officials reportedly stated that North Korean troops are in an unspecified area in occupied Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted enhanced Ukraine-South Korea cooperation amid since-retracted reports that South Korea would consider providing direct military assistance to Ukraine.
• The Kremlin is reportedly struggling to prepare for the September 2026 Russian State Duma elections campaign due to uncertainty about the course of the war in Ukraine, suggesting that the Kremlin is not confident that Russia will be able to win the war over the next two years.
• The Kremlin simultaneously continues to militarise various levels of Russian government, likely in preparation for long-term war efforts in Ukraine and confrontation against NATO despite the reported lack of preparation for the Duma elections.
• The US Treasury and State departments sanctioned nearly 400 entities and individuals from over a dozen countries on 30 October in one of the largest concerted efforts to address Russian sanctions evasions via third parties to date.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to advertise Russian military service to civilians in occupied Ukraine.

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